Wealth Strategies
Saxo Stirs Pot With Annual "Outrageous Predictions"

A familiar end-of-year event is when the Danish wealth management and trading platform sets out bold predictions, reflecting its biases, hopes and ideas about what might be possible.
Saxo Bank, the Denmark-headquartered online trading and investment group, likes to stir the intellectual pot every year with its “outrageous predictions,” not for shock value but to start conversations about possible scenarios. An alarming aspect of these predictions, given the times in which we live, is that they are not particularly far-fetched. (Here are its predictions 12 months ago.)
“Though these predictions are not Saxo Bank's official market forecasts, they are a reminder to investors to consider all potential outcomes, including those that seem far-fetched. Outrageous predictions are a deliberate effort to push the boundaries of market participants' imaginations and prepare them for any eventuality,” it says.
Here they are:
1, With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League
franchise
As oil prices soar, Saudi Arabia extends its influence by
acquiring one of the most coveted franchises in sports to create
a World Champions League: “Saudi Arabia’s radical restructuring
of its economy away from its dependency on oil revenues towards
becoming a tourism, leisure, and entertainment powerhouse,
receives an added boost from a meteoric rise in oil prices, which
reach $150 per barrel around mid-year on stronger-than-expected
demand. Now holding the keys to the cherished football
competition, the Saudis immediately move to transform it into a
global club competition,” Saxo says.
Implications: The Manchester United stock price doubles and Brent crude goes to $150 per barrel.
2, World hit by major health crisis as obesity drugs make
people stop exercising
GLP-1 obesity drugs are seen as a solution to the world’s obesity
epidemic, but the ease of taking a pill makes people stop
exercising and increase their intake of junk food: “As supply of
GLP-1 obesity drugs is expanded, prices come down and governments
choose to designate the obesity drugs as vital for improving
health and stopping the obesity epidemic...However, in a turn of
events, supply of GLP-1 obesity drugs is unable to meet the
widespread demand, and patients need to wait for years to get
their injections. Meanwhile, they stop exercising or keeping to a
healthy diet now that a pill can keep weight in check, fuelling a
major health crisis. Global adult obesity rates shoot up from the
current 39 per cent to 45 per cent in 2024,” it says.
Implications: The processed food industry sees a significant demand lift, McDonalds and Coca-Cola stock prices outperform broader markets by 60 per cent each.
3, US heralds the end of capitalism with tax-free
government bonds
The US adopts a radical fiscal strategy to tackle its economic
challenges by incentivising investment in government bonds. “The
US government is forced to increase fiscal spending exponentially
amid the 2024 elections to keep the economy going and avoid
social unrest. Due to lingering inflation pressures and foreign
investors repatriating capital, demand for US Treasuries remains
sluggish, provoking a spike in US Treasury yields. In a desperate
attempt to normalise borrowing costs, the US government makes
income from government bonds tax-free,” Saxo says.
Implications: US Treasuries rally across all tenors, and the yield curve bull flattens as investors can lock in the highest yields in decades without tax burdens. The stock market tumbles, but a selected group of cash-rich companies benefit from an inverted yield curve.
4, Generative AI “deepfake” triggers a national security
crisis
Generative AI, hailed as a productivity boon, becomes a national
security threat after a daring AI deepfake heist against a
high-ranking official in a developed country. Governments crack
down on AI with new regulations, puncturing the AI hype as VCs
flee the industry:
“In a high-stakes game, a criminal group deploys the most deceptive generative AI deepfake the world has ever seen, phishing a high-ranking government official to hand over top-secret state information from a developed country. The daring move and success trigger the biggest national security crisis since WWII, ushering in a new era of far-reaching AI regulation. In an historic move to deal with the catastrophic side effects of generative AI, the US and EU declare that all content produced by a generative AI should have the label ‘Made by AI’. The generative AI deepfake incident goes from national security crisis to full-blown public distrust in information delivered on the internet, as AI-produced content swells to 90 per cent of all information,” Saxo says.
Implications: Traditional media companies approved by their governments for disseminating public news soar in value, with shares in The New York Times Company doubling. Adobe shares plunge as governments penalise the company, as the catastrophic deepfake was made using its software.
5, Deficit countries form “Rome Club” to negotiate trade
terms
A coalition of deficit countries aims to restructure global trade
dynamics in their favour:
“As the US debt situation has become uncontrollable, a group of six deficit countries form a ‘Rome Club’ to cooperate on reducing deficits by collectively negotiating new world trade terms with the surplus countries. The argument goes that resetting the deficits through gradual pegged revaluations of the surplus countries would enable a global reset, creating a more equal and stable economic model. The six founding countries of the ‘Rome Club’ are the US, UK, India, Brazil, Canada and France. Adjusting the divergence of the current account between the key countries is going to be a painful adjustment for the highest surplus countries which are China, Germany, Norway, Japan, the Netherlands and Singapore,” Saxo says.
Implications: The fact that the world’s reserve currency is spinning out of control reduces faith in the fiat money system, setting up big gains for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies.
6, Robert F Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential
election
In a stunning political upset, RFK Jr captures the
presidency, ushering in a new political direction for the United
States. Saxo says: “In 2024, for the first time in the history of
the USA, a third-party candidate, Robert F Kennedy
Jr wins the US presidential election. His populist platform
against the war-mongering Democrats and against the corporate
elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democratic and
Trump supporters. A new political era in the USA begins with the
dramatic pivot away from plutocracy, as voters demand an end to
drastic inequality and injustice and the end of forever wars.”
Implications: Kennedy’s pro-peace message and promise to end the abuses of the US healthcare system and break up excess corporate power sees defence, drug and healthcare companies nosedive, and the internet and info-tech monopolies trade nervously on concerns that a wider war against monopoly companies will follow.
7, Japan’s “lucky 7 per cent” GDP growth rate forces BoJ
to abandon yield curve control
Japan experiences a surprising economic surge, leading to a
significant policy shift by the Bank of Japan. “The deflation era
in Japan has ended, bringing wage growth back. With a yield curve
control policy in place, the Japanese economy is over-stimulated
as real rates decline with nominal yields capped but inflation
expectations rising. The BoJ is therefore forced to end its yield
curve control policy in 2024. This causes a rout in global bond
markets, as Japanese investors move money back home.”
Implications: Yen strengthens as Japanese investors repatriate money to domestic assets, pushing USDJPY below 130, EURJPY below 140 and AUDJPY below 88.
8, Luxury plunges as EU goes Robin Hood, introducing
wealth tax
The European Union's new wealth tax leads to a downturn in the
luxury market, with major repercussions for high-end brands. “It
is a great irony that the EU, which is the world’s biggest
welfare system, has created 499 dollar billionaires who are
paying the lowest amount of personal tax in percentage of wealth
compared with billionaires from North America and East Asia.
As social unrest in Europe is constantly at the edge of eruption, and as costs associated with the green transformation, the war in Ukraine and general inflation rise, the EU Commission commits to the July 2023 European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) entitled ‘Taxing great wealth to finance the ecological and social transition’.
The EU Commission implements a law that annually taxes 2 per cent of wealth on billionaires. This modern version of Robin Hood sends shockwaves through the European luxury industry, as recent studies have shown a strong correlation between the pursuit of luxury items and levels of income and wealth inequality.”
Implications: LVMH shares plunge 40 per cent on the EU Commission's new wealth tax and other parts of the luxury segment including Porsche and Ferrari see their share price suffering badly.