Investment Strategies

Sell Euro When Fed Embarks On New Round Of QE, Says Coutts

Max Skjönsberg London 13 August 2012

Sell Euro When Fed Embarks On New Round Of QE, Says Coutts

An anticipated third round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve in the US will present an opportunity for investors to sell euro, which is likely to benefit in the short term, according to Coutts.

The UK-based wealth management brand of Royal Bank of Scotland is negative on the single currency on the long-term, but believes that more electronic printing money by some of the world's major central banks will benefit the euro in the short term, as other currencies will weaken. Besides the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also expected to pump more liquidity into their economies.

This is despite the likely rate cut from the European Central Bank itself. Coutts predicts the ECB to cut its base rate by 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent, which would mean a new historical low.

The single currency is currently below its $1.30 10-year average but within its historical range of $0.90-$1.60.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to stimulate its economy through quantitative easing. It is debatable whether this will take place in September or later in the year to give the economy an extra boost before the presidential election in November.

In other parts of the world, Coutts favours the Mexican peso thanks to its focus on domestic consumption and close ties with the US economy.

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