Banking Crisis
Global Banking Group Raises Alarm Over China's Debt
Worries about China's supposedly vulnerable financial situation - and its debt - do not seem to want to go away.
The amount of debt in China is concerning and its so-called "credit gap" is now more than three times higher than the level normally deemed to be dangerous, according to the Bank of International Settlements, the Switzerland-based group of central banks.
The credit gap expresses the difference between corporate and household debt as a share of gross domestic product, showing whether debt is rising at an unustainable amount. A reading of over 10 per cent is deemed by BIS to be worrying. China's rose above 30 per cent in March this year at a time when its equity markets were volatile and there were concerns about outflows from the country.
According to BIS, total credit outstanding by China was equal to 255 per cent of GDp at the end of March, lower than economies such as the eurozone and UK, and below the average ratio of 279 for aggregate economies. But as several media reports noted, such as the Financial Times, the rate with which China's debt/GDP ratio has grown in recent years is potentially worrying.
Not all investment houses and economists agree that China is due for a hard landing. Matthews Asia, the US-headquartered investment firm, has for some time argued that worries about China's economy are overdone, and have argued that the country has taken significant steps to curb unwise lending and excess risk-taking. However, as this news organisation was told by Goldman Sachs about three years ago, no major economy that has shifted from export-led growth to more domestically-focused growth, and after such a period of hot performance figures, has been able to do so without a severe shakeout in its financial system. Goldman Sachs has given China high percentage chances of a financial crisis in the next few years.
And area of concern in recent years has been the growth of what are called wealth management products in China. WMPs are investments offering fixed rates of return well above regulated interest rates for deposits and are often used to fund investments in sectors where bank credit is restricted. The offer of higher returns, it is said, means they come with more risk, but this is not always easily understood by end-clients. They are typically actively managed by banks, with other firms commonly used as "channels", but few are recorded on banks’ balance sheets.
Earlier in September, Fitch, the ratings agency, warned of build-up of risk in WMPs. The Chinese authorities have been looking to tighten regulations on1 WMPs since late 2014, and in July 2016 circulated rules aimed at reining in the worst excesses. Under the new regulations banks must make provisions for investment products until the risk reserve buffer reaches 1 per cent of the banks' outstanding WMPs, while restrictions will also be placed on the investment scope for WMPs issued by smaller or less experienced banks.