With geopolitical tensions riding high, Valerie Genin, head of investments Monaco at Barclays Private Bank, shares her insights with this news service on mid-year outlook trends in Monaco among her clients.

Last week, this news service sat down with Valerie Genin (pictured), head of investments Monaco at Barclays Private Bank to draw on her insights on the investment landscape for this year. She said she is constructive on US and emerging market equities, driven by tech, and cautious on European ones. She is also constructive on fixed income and private markets.

Despite the Middle East conflict, which caused oil price to surge making some emerging markets and oil importers vulnerable, Genin told this news service that most of their clients have not changed their portfolios. However, she noted that people have been a bit more cautious on Asia and Europe, due to the conflict and the oil impact.

The US and Iran have agreed to pause their attacks and allow vessels to move through the Strait of Hormuz which is essential for global oil markets. An interim peace deal was also signed on 17 June, and indirect talks between the two sides briefly resumed in Doha, Qatar last week. On the back of this, oil prices dropped to levels seen before the start of the conflict, with hopes climbing for a breakthrough in the negotiations aimed at securing a permanent peace deal. Brent crude fell more than 1 per cent on Thursday to below $71 a barrel, returning the international benchmark to pre-war prices.

Lisa Wang from California-based Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions is also overweight in emerging markets, despite the conflict, as well as US equities, driven by tech. A number of managers have noted that many Asian countries still have stocks to keep them supplied for a few months, making their energy supplies fairly resilient. 

“The impact on the US is limited compared to Asia and Europe, due to oil,” Genin continued. In line with a number of wealth managers, such as Edmund Shing at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, she believes that the conflict has put more emphasis on accelerating the energy transition towards renewable energy. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also announced plans last week for a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast designed to boost oil supplies to Asia by 2032-34. 

On sectors, Genin is constructive on tech and artificial intelligence in the US and emerging market equities, as well as on the infrastructure linked to AI. Nevertheless, she emphasised the importance of keeping portfolios diversified, seeing opportunities in sectors such as healthcare. As geopolitical tensions continue, the investment case for defence-related activity is also gaining traction; consequently, Genin sees investment opportunities in defence in Europe.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the profile of defence-related investment has risen. Last year, Germany and the EU agreed to hike defence spending, after decades of underinvestment. A number of investment managers, such as BNP Paribas Asset Management and WisdomTree, also recently launched defence-focused funds to capitalise on the new investment landscape. 

On fixed income, Genin focuses on developed markets, opting for investment grade credit over high yield. She is constructive on emerging market debt, but selectively. “Most clients also look at UK gilt markets, as yields are attractive,” she added. 

Genin also highlighted the importance of private markets acting as a diversifier in portfolios, seeing good opportunities in tech. “Most clients have an allocation to alternative markets, representing up to 40 per cent in some portfolios,” she said. Similar to a number of wealth managers, California-headquartered investment manager Franklin Templeton also sees attractive opportunities globally within private markets in 2026.

AI is also expected to play an important role in wealth management; Genin said that the bank has started to use AI in their offices. Along with other wealth managers, she sees AI as complementing the manager's role, making processes more efficient rather than replacing the human touch. The benefits of AI range from automating repetitive tasks, providing data-driven advice in specific areas such as portfolio optimisation, risk management and tax analysis.