RBC wealth management and French asset manager Carmignac released their 2026 outlook this week, sharing their macroeconomic insights and views on asset allocation. A common theme appears to be a need for diversification across sectors.

A blend of high-growth technology firms and more defensive sectors such as healthcare could be the formula for success in 2026, wealth managers say, as they continued to set out asset allocation views.

French asset manager Carmignac, to give one example, said global gross domestic product growth will remain around 3 per cent, driven by the artificial intelligence capital spending boom, national security spending and fiscal profligacy. Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at the same firm, favours blending tech winners with defensive healthcare and staples, appealing to both ends of the two-tier economy. Separately, Orbis Investments[/tag, says investors should not neglect healthcare as an opportunity. 

“2026 global growth should be on par with 2025 at close to 3 per cent, with more impetus from US, Europe and Japan offsetting a slowdown in China and India,” RaphaĂ«l Gallardo, chief economist at Carmignac, said in a note. “Growth drivers will remain limited to a tryptich of artificial intelligence (AI) capex, national security spending (defence, de-risking of supply chains) and fiscal profligacy,” he continued. “The lack of acceleration, despite ongoing monetary easing and new fiscal easing, is due to four headwinds: continued geopolitical tensions (tariffs, Russia, Venezuela, Taiwan), tightening of credit conditions in private debt markets, repo market dysfunction and the return of bond vigilantes.”

Asset allocation
On equities, using a barbell strategy, Carmignac's Thozet likes to blend tech winners with defensive healthcare and staples, appealing to both ends of the two-tier economy.

“Artificial intelligence adoption rates have tripled – from 5 per cent to 15 per cent – in just three years, unleashing a massive investment wave and supporting strong earnings growth among the AI poster-child companies,” Thozet said in a note.

“Expected productivity gains of 1.5 per cent per year, generating a net present value of more than $20 trillion over 10 years are relativising concerns over overspending,” he continued. “The concern is exuberance for this popular market theme. But fixed income markets are now being tapped to fund AI investment, and credit risk imposes discipline and acts as a built-in speed limit for exuberance in price action.”

“Frothiness in the market’s most beloved themes and valuation risk has a simple answer: when valuations are high don’t buy the index, select carefully,” Thozet said. “Taiwanese and Korean technology companies are integral to the AI supply chain, yet trade at far more attractive multiples than US peers,” he continued. “China is building its own AI ecosystem, creating differentiated opportunities. Any new entrant salivating at Nvidia’s 75 per cent gross margins becomes a catalyst for cheaper compute and higher software adoption. This would benefit software companies, laggards this year.”

RBC Wealth Management also thinks that domestic policies and improved external relations could support the uptrends of Chinese and Japanese equities.

Healthcare
Thozet emphasised the benefits of investing in the barbell of American spending, saying that healthcare and consumer staples display a relative low correlation to the technology sector and are worth considering. Future fiscal policies are increasingly expected to target households and election countdowns have a way of making fiscal restraint evaporate.

His views were echoed on Thursday by Kelly Bogdanova, vice president and portfolio analyst at RBC Wealth Management – US. “We recommend starting the year with a focus on the healthcare sector, as well as defensive dividend growth stocks,” Bogdanova said.

“Questions about whether AI is in a bubble should persist into 2026. While circular financing deals and the possibility that unprecedented capex spending could soon run into power generation and related regulatory constraints are concerning,” Bogdanova continued. "We see certain yellow warning signs rather than a full-fledged bubble at this stage. Investors should stay flexible and regularly review their portfolios to ensure they're not taking on too much risk in any one area.”

Thozet suggested that large technology monopolies are both part of the solution and the problem. “On the one hand their capex cycle has become a stabilising force in the global economy. But on the other hand, their dominance contributes to widening wealth gaps (as they channel wage/jobs and capital gains to a narrow segment of the population),” he said.

He sees two consumption realities in a two-tier economy. “The wealthy continue to spend, while lower-income households face rising delinquencies and stagnant real wages, pushing them towards private labels, buy-now-pay-later schemes, and deep discounts,” he continued.

“For investors, the implication is clear: seeking exposure to both ends of this two-tier economy. For example, stocks such as Procter & Gamble cater to broad, mass-market consumer needs with affordable and essential goods. Meanwhile, Sprouts targets the premium, appealing to higher-income consumers focused on fresh foods,” Thozet said.

Simon Skinner, head of the global investment team at Orbis Investments, also sees opportunities in healthcare, an area of neglected opportunity. “US Alnylam Pharmaceuticals and Insmed are advancing cutting-edge therapies. UnitedHealth Group and Elevance dominate US managed care, with scale and data advantages that are hard to replicate,” he said. “Steris leads in sterilisation and infection prevention – an essential, recurring service. US manufacturer Bruker provides precision instruments that underpin both academic and industrial research.” See here.